Are cyberattacks seasonal?

Just like shopping spikes around the holidays or flu season hits in winter, hacking shows clear seasonal trends. And understanding these patterns is critical for any organization aiming to stay ahead of cyber threats. In fact, failing to anticipate these trends can leave your systems vulnerable precisely when they're most at risk.

That’s why, having a strong incident response plan isn’t optional, it’s essential.

Cybercriminals, hacktivists, and even nation-state actors are not just opportunistic, they’re calculated. They time their attacks to coincide with moments of weakness, high activity, or distraction. Here's a breakdown of the key times of year when attacks tend to spike—and why:

1. Q4 (October–December): The holiday gold rush
The fourth quarter of the year is a prime time for cybercriminals due to increased shopping activity, year-end campaigns from companies, and often overextended IT teams, which may be on vacation. Retail and e-commerce sites experience a significant surge in traffic during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the holiday shopping season, making them attractive targets for credit card skimming, fake websites, and phishing emails. Additionally, some attackers strategically deploy ransomware just before the holidays when businesses are less prepared to respond. This timing takes advantage of the urgency to resume operations during a critical sales period, which can result in higher ransom payouts.

2. Q1 (January–March): Tax season exploits
In North America and many other countries, tax season begins in the first quarter of the year. Hackers seize the opportunity to steal personally identifiable information (PII) and commit tax fraud.

This is prime time for Phishing and Identity Theft where fake CRA emails, malicious tax software, and fraudulent return filings are common. Individuals and accounting firms are especially vulnerable.

3. Summer (June–August): Lull for some, prime time for others
Summer can bring a dip in attacks for certain sectors, like education, but it's also a period of reduced vigilance for many businesses. With key IT personnel on vacation, response times slow and misconfigurations are more likely to go unnoticed. Some attackers deliberately strike during this lull, exploiting organizations’ reduced monitoring and slower incident handling.

4. Back-to-school (August–September): education in the crosshairs
As students and faculty return to classrooms, schools and universities see a surge in cyberattacks.

• Ransomware: Educational institutions, often underfunded and under protected, are prime ransomware targets. Attackers use previously breached credentials to gain access to university systems, particularly at the start of the academic year.

5. Election cycles: political hacking
In election years, nation-state actors and hacktivists increase operations aimed at sowing discord, stealing data, or manipulating information.

• DDoS attacks and disinformation: Government websites, political campaigns, and news outlets are frequent targets.
• Email leaks and data breaches: These are often strategically timed to cause maximum disruption and media coverage.

6. Patch and update cycles: The race against the clock
Microsoft’s 'Patch Tuesday' and similar scheduled updates are critical for securing systems. But the time between a patch release and actual implementation is a golden window for hackers.

• Zero-day exploits: Attackers reverse-engineer patches to exploit unpatched systems, often within hours of the update being published.
  

These seasonal trends reveal something important: cyber threats aren’t random. They follow the rhythm of human behavior, business operations, and institutional cycles. That predictability is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it gives defenders a chance to prepare. On the other, it means any lapse in readiness is likely to be exploited and when an attack does hit, the clock starts ticking.

A strong incident response (IR) plan is as important as a firewall or antivirus software. No matter how secure your systems are, no organization is immune to a breach. What separates minor disruptions from catastrophic losses is how quickly and effectively you respond.

Here’s why being prepared is key :

1. Speed matters: Most damage from a breach occurs in the first few hours. A well-practiced IR plan ensures your team knows what to do, whom to notify, and how to contain the threat swiftly.
2. Limiting the blast radius: An uncontained incident can escalate—infecting more systems, exfiltrating more data, and increasing downtime. Rapid detection and containment are critical.
3. Compliance and reputation: Many industries are subject to strict breach notification laws. A delayed or mishandled response can result in legal penalties and lasting reputational damage.
4. Learning and hardening: A good IR process includes post-incident analysis. Understanding how an attack happened allows organizations to shore up defenses and prevent similar incidents in the future.
   

The best defense is a proactive one. That means not only understanding when you’re most likely to be attacked, but also having the tools, training, and protocols to respond.

Start by asking:

• Do we have an incident response plan in place?
• Have we tested it in a realistic scenario?
• Do all key personnel know their roles during a breach?
• Do we have employee awareness training in place? Especially around high-risk time?
• Are we monitoring seasonal trends that may affect our risk posture?

Cybercrime isn’t going away. But by recognizing its patterns and preparing accordingly, your organization can turn the tide.

Don’t wait until the next seasonal spike. Build your incident response capabilities now—because the cost of doing nothing is far greater than the investment in being prepared.

Check out KPMG in Canada’s 2024 Cyber Incidents and Intelligence report which provides a deep dive into real-world threats Canadian organizations faced in 2024 and a forward-looking perspective of what’s ahead in 2025.