The surge in precious‑metal prices is fueling industry transactions, with major producers expanding their reserves and geographic footprint by acquiring junior mining companies. We expect further mergers and acquisition activity, with miners likely to swap properties as they build reserves and reshape portfolios to take advantage of market opportunities, minimize risks, or mitigate exposure to political instability.
The true value of our “rule of law” is best seen when contrasted with the rise of resource nationalism elsewhere.
In Mali, a prolonged standoff over a new mining code saw a massive Canadian‑owned complex briefly placed under state administration before a settlement was reached. This instability caused industrial gold output in the region to plunge. These types of geopolitical shocks are driving investors away from high‑risk regions and back toward the relative safety and transparency of the Canadian market, creating a Canadian premium.
In another example of resource nationalism, the United States has signalled an unmistakable intent to secure critical minerals through diplomatic and strategic actions—including buying direct stakes in key mining companies, forming a trading bloc with allies and partners, using tariffs to maintain minimum prices, and launching Project Vault, a US$12‑billion initiative aimed at securing critical minerals. What Canada’s role will be remains to be seen.
As countries seek to tighten their grip on critical minerals, it poses challenges for both mining companies and Canada. We are witnessing a back‑and‑forth between our need for massive capital investment and our desire for resource sovereignty.
The 2019 $10‑billion acquisition of Goldcorp by Colorado‑based Newmont remains a stark example of the loss of domestic ownership of some of Canada’s most critical assets. This deal followed a list of Canadian assets picked up by foreign firms—including Inco, Alcan, and Falconbridge—which has steadily eroded domestic control.
The federal government has responded with a protective, patriotic stance by modernizing the Investment Canada Act to put national security at the forefront of every transaction.
The message is clear: Canada is open for business, but we are no longer interested in being merely a ferry for the world’s superpowers. The government is requiring hard commitments to keep head offices on Canadian soil, but the question remains: Will companies hold fast to their commitments?