CEO Outlook: German executives between doubt and confidence

Only 77 per cent of CEOs of German companies still consider their companies' growth prospects in the next three years to be realistic. Executives were even more optimistic in 2023. At that time, 80 per cent still believed in corporate growth and in 2022 even 90 per cent. The assessment of their own company's growth prospects has thus been on a downward trend since 2017. This is shown by our CEO Outlook 2024, which analyses the assessments of German managers on important economic topics. While the view of their own company is becoming more negative, the majority of CEOs in Germany are confident about the development of Germany as a business location. 81 per cent are convinced that the local economy will grow in the next three years. Last year, the figure was 75 per cent.

Despite pessimistic growth expectations, most companies are not planning any job cuts. On the contrary: 93 per cent of CEOs even expect the number of employees to increase over the next three years. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as an important growth driver, although there are hurdles to implementation.  Cost issues and ethical aspects are among the relevant factors here. It is also worth noting that only one per cent of those we surveyed believe that the technology will cost more jobs than it will create. 23 per cent even expect AI to create more jobs and 76 per cent do not expect any major changes.

Our survey shows: Generative AI is considered the most important driver of future growth. 58 percent of CEOs prioritize investments in this area. At the same time, ESG remains in focus. 75 percent of CEOs have fully integrated ESG into their business strategies and expect a return on these investments in the medium term.

The topic of regulating generative artificial intelligence is omnipresent in many boardrooms. Almost two thirds (65%) of German CEOs believe that the slow pace of regulation is hindering the progress of their organisation. This shows that managers want clearer guidelines in order to implement technology securely and efficiently. At the same time, 78 per cent of respondents see a parallel with the far-reaching regulations in the area of climate protection. They are in favour of the regulations for generative AI achieving a similar level of commitment and transparency.

For the KPMG CEO Outlook, 1,325 CEOs of large companies worldwide were interviewed, including more than 120 managers in Germany. The study provides comprehensive insights into the current challenges and strategies of corporate leaders.