Nordic Private Equity Market Update Q1'25

Our Nordic PE sector team shares insights on PE deal volumes in key sectors across the Nordics. 

• LTM buyout deal volume increased for the first time since Q3/’23, while LTM VC deal volume continued to decline.
• VC deal volume reached its lowest quarterly level during the reporting period (Q4/’21-Q4/’24).
• Buyout deal activity increased substantially in NO, reaching the second-highest quarterly volume during the reporting period. SE buyout deal volume increased 18% on a QoQ basis after a slow Q3/’24. FI and DK buyout deal volume decreased, with DK reaching its lowest quarterly volume during the reporting period.
• Buyout deal volume increased in all key sectors. The Tech sector experienced the most significant increases as deal volume grew by 27 deals / 35% compared to Q3/’24.
• PE fundraising was active in Q4/’24, as five buyout funds, with a combined value of ~€3.3bn, and two VC funds, with a combined value of ~€240m were closed. Six new buyout and three new VC funds were opened in the Nordics during Q4/’24.

• Muted IPO market continues: The IPO window remains largely shut across the Nordics due to persistent market volatility and elevated interest rates, limiting exit opportunities and encouraging longer asset hold times.
• Buyout activity shows divergence: Buyout activity trends are uneven across the Nordics. DK shows resilience with increased deal activity, while the other countries face headwinds.
• Fundraising environment remains challenging: LPs continue to exercise caution amid a global capital overhang and stretched allocation limits.
• Shift toward resilient and stable sectors: Investors are gravitating toward sectors with more stable cash flows and lower economic sensitivity, while interest in more cyclical or discretionary segments remains subdued amid ongoing macro uncertainty.