The Competitiveness Compass outlines multiple decarbonization policy measures, positioning them as drivers of economic growth. The communication highlights the importance of decarbonization for both energy security and climate change. Collectively, these measures contribute to an intermediate climate target of 90% CO₂ reduction by 2040, to be incorporated into the European Climate Law. First in line is the Clean Industrial Deal, expected to be published in Q1 2025.
Based on the Competitiveness Compass, we anticipate focus for the current Commission mandate on the following key climate and energy policy themes:
- General policy instruments will be replaced with sector-specific policy packages, maintaining a technology-neutral approach. Energy-intensive sectors (e.g., steel, metals, and chemicals) will benefit from trade defense instruments (e.g., CBAM) to ensure a level playing field, while transition support will be provided through action plans and restructured state aid. The Commission announces policy intervention will be based increasingly on:
“assessment of needs and market outlook, focusing on technologies key for decarbonization and economic resilience, emerging sectors, or on technologies where current EU domestic production risks being put under pressure by international competitors benefiting from an uneven playing field, subsidies or support polices leading to non-market overcapacity.”
- A strong push to lower energy costs through:
- Expanding renewable electricity capacity,
- Maturing renewable energy market instruments,
- Reducing tariffs and taxes.
High and volatile energy prices for end-users will become a key political focus. In the long term, efforts will focus on maturing the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) markets, reducing power price dependence on fossil fuels. Industrial users will be incentivized for demand flexibility.
- Permanent carbon removal will be incentivized to improve its business case, but no significant incentives are expected before 2027.