M&A Radar: Ukraine 9m 2025

Ukraine’s M&A market has demonstrated moderate growth in the last nine months, as market consolidation trends continued even amid a challenging wartime environment. 9m 2025 saw a total of 45 transactions with a combined disclosed value of USD806 million, a 22% increase in deal volume and an 8% increase in disclosed deal value compared to 9m 2024 (up from 37 deals and USD746 million, respectively). Limited market transparency, a common structural feature in Ukrainian dealmaking, continues to have an effect on deal disclosure data, with the share of transactions listing deal value declining from 59% in 9m 2024 to 53% in 9m 2025. This relatively low transparency rate suggests that the actual size of the M&A market may be higher than reported, potentially explaining the discrepancy in the more muted increase in terms of deal value as compared with increases in deal volume.

Two significant transactions exceeding USD100 million jointly accounted for 56% of total disclosed deal value in 9m 2025, driving overall market growth:

Agritech and food company MHP's acquisition of a 92% stake in leading Spanish poultry and pork producer Uvesa as part of a deal reportedly worth upwards of EUR270 million.
Kyivstar's USD155 million acquisition of ride-hailing and delivery services company Uklon.

As there were no transactions exceeding USD100 million in Q3 2025, the list of major deals remains consistent with those seen in H1 2025. The average deal size also remained unchanged year-on-year at USD34 million.

Despite persistent wartime risks, local dealmakers continue to adapt and sustain activity. If current trends persist, M&A market growth indicators for 2025 are expected to be broadly in line with those of 2024.

Domestic M&A activity continues to form the backbone of the market, accounting for USD442 million of total deal value (up from USD212 million in 9m 2024). This represents approximately half of the total deal value for the period, almost doubling the domestic dealmaking ratio in 9m 2024. In terms of volume, domestic deals represented 73% of all transactions in 9m 2025 (up from 51% in 9m 2024).

Despite the third quarter of the year traditionally seeing lower business activity, sectoral trends have remained consistent with H1 2025. Overall domestic M&A activity comprised five innovation and technology deals, 12 real estate and construction deals, and six agricultural transactions, with these deals collectively accounting for 85% of total domestic deal value and 70% of deal volume. The remaining 10 domestic deals worth a total USD65 million were distributed across other industries.

Deal value in the innovation and technology sector in 9m 2025 continues to be heavily influenced by Kyivstar’s acquisition of 97% of Uklon for USD155 million, still this year’s largest domestic deal, which was complemented by two additional Kyivstar transactions totalling USD41 million.

Indeed, 2025 has seen the reversal of two years of decline in IT service exports; with Ukrainian IT exports reaching USD4.3 billion in the first eight months of 2025, representing a 1.1% increase versus the same period of the previous year. IT Arena 2025, Ukraine’s main innovation and technology conference, registered record engagement and saw the event’s Startup Competition investment fund reach a record USD15 million, reflecting continuing strong interest in Ukrainian technology companies.

Fittingly for such a key pillar of Ukraine’s economy, the agricultural sector has also remained integral to domestic M&A activity. Despite severe challenges posed by factors such as Russia’s ongoing invasion and adverse weather, Ukraine is expected to harvest 51–56 million tonnes of grain in 2025, comparable to 2024. EU support through expanded import quotas and World Bank funding under the ARISE project (UAH1 billion) have further strengthened the sector in the face of challenging conditions. As such, investor interest remains evident, exemplified by OKKO Group beneficiary Vitaliy Antonov’s Vi.An Holding Limited acquiring both Borschivsky Agricultural Company and Kairos-Holding in Lviv region.

Building on recent trends, privatisation deals have continued to see increasing traction; with three transactions totalling USD29 million1 announced in Q3 2025, including two privatisations involving the sale of assets of state enterprises . The most notable privatisation procedure was the sale of detergent chemical company Vinnytsiapobutkhim (a sanctioned asset confiscated in 2022) for USD15 million to Afina Group, owned by Eva and Varus co-founders Ruslan Shostak and Valeriy Kiptyk. The privatisation of Ukrbud construction company was also finally concluded in October 2025, with a winning bid for USD19.5 million from Astion brothers’ Tekhno Online LLC. Upcoming large-scale privatisations include planned auctions for the Odesa Portside Plant and the sanctioned metalworking company Motor-Detal Konotop.

Alongside mainstays, the key sectors in the Ukrainian M&A landscape have necessarily changed as the market continues to evolve, exemplified by just one deal taking place in the power and utility sector in both 9m 2025 and 9m 2024 (following a total of four deals in 2023). Nonetheless, the sector still retains significant potential, even amid ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, as demonstrated by a EUR350 million infrastructure fund launched in partnership with UK-based Amber Infrastructure by Dragon Capital. The first announced investment involves a USD30 million project with former Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi to construct a 20 MW gas-piston plant and a 40 MW energy storage facility.

1 Privatisation deal amounts are stated excluding VAT. As such, the total economic impact including VAT (where applicable) should be higher than stated figures.

Outbound deals in 9m 2025 have continued H1 2025 trends, contributing 40% of total deal value (USD329 million) across five deals that represent just over 10% of total deal volume, an increase in value and a decline in volume compared to 9m 2024 which saw 10 deals with a combined disclosed value of just USD85 million. This growing discrepancy in outbound deal value and volume reflects the impact of the largest transaction in the current period, namely MHP’s aforementioned acquisition of a 92% stake in the Spanish meat company Uvesa for EUR270 million (USD300 million).

Outbound M&A deals were similarly concentrated in agriculture (two deals) and innovation and technology (three deals), with the latter continuing a trend of Ukrainian IT firms’ ongoing international expansion through strategic acquisitions. These included:

Sigma Software Group’s USD10 million acquisition of US-based IT consulting company A Society Group
Ciklum’s USD5 million acquisition of Polish outsourcer GoSolve Group
TechMagic’s acquisition of Polish consulting firm Hitteps.

We understand a number of additional outbound transactions are currently in progress, confirming Ukrainian investors’ growing appetite for cross-border expansion.

Inbound M&A activity slowed notably in 9m 2025, following strong performance in 2024 that was driven by the twin effect of IT firm Creatio’s USD200 million funding round and NJJ Capital's USD120 million acquisition of telecommunications company Datagroup-Volia. By contrast, 9m 2025 saw seven inbound transactions with a combined disclosed value of USD35 million (versus USD448 million in 9m 2024).

These deals were mostly concentrated in both the innovation and technology and transport and infrastructure sectors. Logistics company Medlog SA’s USD15 million acquisition of stakes in intermodal transportation operator N’UNIT and the Mostyska cross-border terminal, for example, represents a standout deal for the period and signals renewed foreign interest in Ukrainian logistics assets.

Two defence-tech transactions exceeding USD5 million were also announced, the largest to date in this segment:

Autonomous drone company Swarmer raised USD15 million in a Series A funding round led by Broadband Capital Investments.
British-Ukrainian deep-strike systems developer Trypillian raised USD5 million from British investor.

The growing popularity of events like Brave1’s Defense Tech Valley along with the discussions of dual-use products export regulatory framework, are expected to further boost investor confidence in Ukraine’s domestic defence industry.

However, foreign investors have generally remained cautious in deals outside of this sector, awaiting a clearer picture of security conditions and the impact of international support and war-risk insurance measures before committing to new projects.

Ukraine once again managed to successfully maintain macroeconomic stability in 9m 2025 despite the challenge of ongoing wartime pressures, largely possible thanks to extensive international financial assistance covering social and non-military expenditures and enabling the Ukrainian government to allocate extensive domestic resources to defence. Combined international support in the first nine months of 2025 reached USD30.6 billion, with an additional USD8.7 billion already secured for disbursement in the course of the closing quarter of the year. These inflows are expected to fully cover Ukraine’s external financing requirements for 2025, underpinning both the importance of ongoing international support and Ukraine’s continued commitment to fiscal and macroeconomic responsibility amid ongoing hostilities.

International support has also helped stabilise prices and the currency exchange rates in Ukraine, with year-on-year inflation declining from 14.3% in June to 11.9% in September 2025. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), slowing inflation rates were mainly driven by weakening food price pressures. The NBU anticipates that annual inflation will continue to ease to 9.7% by the end of 2025 and should return to national targets of 5% by 2027.

Ukrainian GDP growth for in 2025 is expected to remain modest, however, with the NBU projecting 2.1% growth in 2025 (down from previous estimates of 3.1%) and no more than 3% annual growth between 2026–2027. These projections broadly align with the EBRD’s revised 2.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s Business Activity Expectations Index rose to 50.4 in September 2025, up from 49.0 in August and a year-on-year increase on 48.7 in September 2024. This increase in confidence signals improving sentiment regarding business prospects across all surveyed sectors, attributable to robust consumer demand, adequate budget funding for restoring infrastructure and logistics, slowed inflation, and a more predictable foreign exchange market.

Interactive report

We are pleased to announce an interactive version of KPMG M&A Radar in Power BI format, spanning the period from 2013 to 9m 2025. This version offers several advantages:

The data in KPMG M&A Radar can be filtered by various time periods; including yearly, half-yearly, and quarterly intervals.
Most analyses in KPMG M&A Radar are interactive, allowing you to filter the data by period, sector, region, etc. You can easily apply filters using the period selector, sector filter, or drop-down menu on the relevant page.
Certain visual elements in KPMG M&A Radar provide access to additional information. Simply click or hover over a specific element in a graph (such as a bar or a section of a doughnut chart) to view more details.

Outlook

GDP and Employment trends tentatively improve

The past three and a half years have seen Ukraine adapt to wartime conditions while still trying to maintain a functional economic equilibrium. The 2026 draft state budget, approved on 15 September 2025, will continue to prioritise security, defence, and social resilience, with expenditures set at UAH4.8 trillion (up UAH415 billion year-on-year). Of this, UAH2.8 trillion (27.2% of GDP) has been earmarked for defence.

Looking ahead, the NBU has stated that Ukraine has already secured USD22 billion in external financing to help cover 2026 expenditures, contributing much needed funding to cover a projected GDP deficit of 18.4%.

Ukraine’s labour market represents another key structural challenge for the country’s economy, constrained by demographic decline due to declining birth rates and outward migration, with the significant share of labour force remaining abroad. Untapped domestic potential still persists though, with only 27% of people over 55 and 16% of persons with disabilities in employment. Programmes to expand the participation of these underrepresented demographic groups in economic activity, including greater involvement of IDPs, could help to partially offset labour shortages and address skills imbalances.

Governmental support for key economic sectors

Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov recently announced the launch of the EUR50 million French-EU Ukraine Phoenix Tech Fund at IT Arena 2025, aimed at supporting early-stage Ukrainian tech startups with revenues below EUR1 million. Such initiatives are indicative of ongoing government and international support for investing in innovation and technology.

In terms of infrastructure and logistics, the Ukrainian government is implementing legal reforms to revitalise public-private partnership (PPP) initiatives as an additional driver for infrastructure investment, with upcoming plans for a concession competition for two terminals at Chornomorsk seaport announced in August 2025. These reforms demonstrate that the Ukrainian government anticipates investors and private companies will have an important role in regenerating this sector of the country’s economy, both in terms of short-term reconstruction challenges and key improvements for future development.

Alongside established sectors such as innovations and technology, logistics and infrastructure, and agriculture, Ukraine’s defence industry has also emerged as a new growth driver. As a means of further encouraging this trend, the Ukrainian government plans to introduce a special “Defence City” legal regime, modelled on the IT-centred Diia City but focused instead on military and dual-use technologies. Two of the four laws submitted to Ukraine’s Parliament have already been officially adopted, paving the way for establishing a legal state support framework and expanding homegrown defence industries.

Prospects for FY 2025 and beyond

Assuming continued international financial support, Ukraine’s economy and M&A market can be expected to maintain relative stability even in the face of challenging geopolitical and military conditions. Persuading hesitant international investors and improving confidence will require addressing key wartime issues, however, including infrastructure destruction, labour shortages, and demographic decline. Such steps will be crucial to sustaining growth and unlocking Ukraine’s medium- and long-term investment potential.