The 2025 edition of the Australian Mining Risk Forecast reveals a reshaped risk landscape for ASX-listed mining companies, driven by global economic instability, technological disruption, and evolving ESG expectations. This year’s analysis draws on self-reported material risks from ASX 300 mining companies, offering a comprehensive view of the sector’s top concerns and strategic priorities.
While many of the risks remain consistent with previous years, their rankings have shifted significantly. Financial risk has surged to the top, reflecting rising capital costs and inflationary pressures. Commodity price risk continues to be a major concern, climbing to second place. Climate change and decarbonisation, which led the rankings in 2024, now sits at third—still critical, but increasingly viewed as a systemic issue underpinning other risks.
This year’s forecast is based on an examination of the self-reported material risks of designated mining companies in the ASX 300. This has enabled a comparative analysis of different commodities, as well as of the differing risk perceptions enabling us to report on insights and areas of focus within the mining industry now and in the future.
Top mining industry challenges for 2025
The top 10 risks identified in this year’s forecast are:
Financial risk
Geopolitical tension, financial and economic upheaval as well as challenges to the international order are among the defining features of today’s global landscape. The past year has seen an increasingly volatile world characterised by overlapping and often competing risks.
This context helps explain the rise of financial risk as the top concern for Australia’s mining sector in 2025, reflecting the impact of rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and tightening capital markets. These conditions are particularly challenging for early-stage and critical minerals projects, where financing constraints are delaying exploration and development.
Looking ahead, the financial environment is expected to remain turbulent, with geopolitical instability and shifting trade dynamics continuing to influence capital flows.
How KPMG can help
KPMG’s Mining & Metals team has extensive industry experience helping mining and metals businesses accelerate growth and enhance performance.
As the industry faces an increasingly complex landscape, we can help you navigate unprecedented pressures and provide support for every area of your mining and metals business.
Get in touch
Caron Sugars
Partner, Governance, Risk & Controls Advisory and Board Advisory Services
KPMG Australia
Trevor Hart
Western Australian Chairman | Global Mining Leader | Partner, Audit and Assurance
KPMG Australia
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