Birth rates bounce back in regions, cost-of-living holding back growth in cities

17 July 2025

KPMG Australia's latest analysis shows a bounce back in births across Australia, but the increase is still well below pre-pandemic levels, with cost-of-living pressures deterring many from starting or expanding their families.

In the last year the total number of births nationally reached 292,500, a recovery of 2.6% compared to the previous year, but still a 3.8% drop from 304,000 in 2019, before the Covid pandemic drove up birth rates significantly.

Similarly, Australia’s fertility rate (the average number of children over a woman’s lifetime) sits at 1.51 in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain our workplace and population growth.

The baby bounce back was largely felt outside the nation's capital cities, with regional Australia reaching 94,900 births in the last year, a 3.9% increase from 2023. 

“Rising rents, mortgage payments and childcare costs in the metro areas are putting a handbrake on people’s plans to start or grow their family. Instead, regional communities are continuing to emerge as popular places to live, work and raise a family, with affordability now top of mind for many Australians,” KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley said. 

Economic pressures driving declining births

The latest KPMG analysis attributes Australia’s declining birth rates primarily to economic pressures showing changes in disposable income have a significant impact on the country’s birth rate.

“During the initial recovery from the lockdown period birth rates temporarily spiked due to low unemployment and substantial government stimulus. But the rising cost-of-living pressures in 2022 and 2023 triggered a significant 'baby recession,' with births dropping by 5.1% during that time,” Mr Rawnsley said.

“Encouragingly, the growth in disposable household income per capita in 2024 suggests there’s cause for optimism that birth rates will recover further.

“While many Australians are still holding back due to cost-of-living pressures, those with a little more cash in the bank are now turning their attention to having a family again. The baby bounce back is absolutely on, with the birth rate set to reach 300,000 over the next year.  

“However, it will still be some time before we exceed the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21st century.”

Sydney's West leads the baby bounce back

Sydney has reached more than 60,000 births in the last year, a 1.1% increase from 2023. However, the city’s total fertility rate is steadily declining, now at 1.54, higher than the national average of 1.51.

Despite falling fertility rates and economic pressures, the outer suburbs of the city are leading the baby bounce back with the top 5 suburbs for births all located in Sydney’s west. 

Sydney suburbs with the most births in 2024:

1. Schofields – East: 614 
2. Marsden Park – Shanes Park: 520 
3. Oran Park: 496 
4. Leppington – Catherine Field: 460 
5. Merrylands – Holroyd: 453

[Note: Suburbs are based on the ABS Statistical Area 2 (SA2) designation]

“Sydney’s booming West is proving the perfect place to raise a family, with many of these areas offering bigger backyards and the same amenities as suburbs closer to the city, for just a fraction of the price.”

“These areas will only continue to grow, as families are priced out of closer to the city and the infrastructure continues to improve, to support these in demand suburbs”.

Melbourne fertility rate continues to decline

Melbourne’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.40 in the last year, the lowest rate among the major cities and well below the national average of 1.51.

This marks the sharpest decline the city has seen in recent years, with 55,730 births in the last year, up 1.5% from 2023 but still 8.2% lower than 60,690 in 2019 before Covid hit.

“Melbourne has really struggled to stabilise its fertility rate since the pandemic,” said Mr Rawnsley.  

“The city did not have a post-covid spike in births like most other cities, possibly because its lockdowns were more protracted than both Sydney and Brisbane.”  

However, despite falling fertility rates and economic pressures, the outer suburbs of the city led the baby bounce back.

Melbourne suburbs with the most births in 2024:

1. Mickleham – Yuroke: 854 
2. Rockbank – Mount Cottrell: 787 
3. Wollert: 617 
4. Werribee – West: 590 
5. Clyde North – South: 559

[Note: Suburbs are based on the ABS Statistical Area 2 (SA2) designation]

“It’s no surprise Melbourne’s greenfield suburbs are prime locations for growing families, offering bigger backyards, plenty of space and much more affordable housing than areas closer to the city", Mr Rawnsley said.

"The western and northern growth corridors are where we are seeing the biggest baby boom, which is feeding into overall population growth in these areas," Mr Rawnsley added. 

Brisbane's southwestern suburbs leading the baby bounce back

Brisbane has recorded the highest fertility rate on Australia’s east-coast with almost 30,000 births in the last year, a 1.8% increase from 2023.

The city’s total fertility rate sits at 1.58, slightly above the national average of 1.51, with Brisbane continuing to attract more families from Sydney and Melbourne due to affordability factors.

The outer suburbs of Brisbane are leading the baby bounce back with four out of the top five suburbs from the city’s Southwest.

Brisbane suburbs with the most births in 2024:

1. Redbank Plains: 555 
2. Boronia Heights – Park Ridge: 494 
3. Murrumba Downs – Griffin: 433 
4. Ripley: 406 
5. Springfield Lakes: 391

[Note: Suburbs are based on the ABS Statistical Area 2 (SA2) designation]

“The bustling area from Brisbane’s CBD out to Ipswich and down to Logan is quickly becoming southeast Queensland’s ‘baby corridor’, with bigger and relatively more affordable homes being built here all the time,” Mr Rawnsley said.

“This growth will require plenty of local infrastructure like schools and community centres to help maintain liveability in these new suburbs,” he added. 

Perth has strongest increase in births across the capital cities

Perth experienced the highest rate of recovery of any capital city with almost 27,000 births in the last year, up 5.7% from 2023.

The city's fertility rate rebounded to 1.63 in 2024, higher than the national average of 1.51 and an increase from 1.58 in 2023, breaking the trend of continuous decline experienced in other cities.

“Perth’s relatively strong fertility rate is driven by the fact it’s housing market is still much more affordable, compared to the east-coast.”

“Perth is absolutely doing the heavy lifting when it comes to driving Australia’s population growth,” Mr Rawnsley said.

“Young families can find a decent sized block much closer to the city than they can in Sydney or Melbourne for just a fraction of the price, making going West a smart move for those wanting the best of both worlds.”

The outer suburbs of Perth are leading the baby bounce back with bigger homes that are relatively more affordable than inner city locations. 

Perth suburbs with the most births in 2024:

1. Armadale - Wungong – Brookdale: 486 
2. Byford: 463
3. Baldivis – South: 407
4. Beechboro: 400 
5. Cannington – Queens Park: 382

Note: Suburbs are based on the ABS Statistical Area 2 (SA2) designation  

Mr Rawnsley said, “In these family-oriented suburbs, the combination of housing affordability, larger properties, and family-friendly infrastructure helps to position them as Perth’s most family-friendly communities.”

Regional Australia: Diverging paths

Regional areas overall have displayed more resilience compared to capital cities, with many seeing strong growth in birth rates compared to the previous year:

• New South Wales (excluding Sydney) reported 32,570 births in 2024, up 3.1% from 2023.
• Victoria (excluding Melbourne) recorded 17,580 births, up 6.4% from the previous year.
• Queensland (excluding Brisbane) posted 29,650 births, a 2.9% increase from 2023.
• South Australia (excluding Adelaide) recorded 3,920 births in 2024, up 2.9% from 2023.
• Western Australia (excluding Perth) recorded 6,780 births, up 8.0% year-over-year.

“The strong birth rates outside the cities are in part a consequence of the great migration we saw during the pandemic which encouraged many Australians to leave city lockdowns for a better lifestyle in the regions,” Mr Rawnsley said.

“These regions are now feeling the long-term benefits of that migration as their relative affordability has allowed them to retain those people who have put down roots and are starting families.”

Some of these regional cities like Geelong and Newcastle are experiencing record-high birth numbers in the last year, while other areas like the Gold Coast have returned to levels consistent with pre-COVID trends after big baby booms in 2021 and 2022.

• Newcastle reported 8,130 births in 2024, reflecting a 4.6% rise from 2023.
• Gold Coast recorded 7,140 births in 2024, an increase of 3.9% from 2023.
• Geelong experienced significant growth, with 4,120 births in 2024, up 7.6% from 2023. This is the highest number of births on record for Geelong.
• Sunshine Coast saw 3,790 births in 2024, a 3.0% increase from 2023.
• Cairns recorded 2,840 births in 2024, a 2.9% increase from 2023.
• Hobart reported 2,600 births in 2024, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from 2023.
• Townsville had 2,490 births in 2024, a 3.3% increase from 2023.
• Darwin recorded 2,040 births in 2024, an increase of 5.2% from 2023.
• Wollongong reported 1,420 births in 2024, an increase of 2.9% from 2023.

Table 1: Births Capital Cities and Rest of States 2019-2024

Source: KPMG Analysis, ABS National, state & territory population and Births, Australia

Note: 2024 estimate is preliminary and subject to revision. 

Table 2: Selected Regional Cities Births 2019-2024

Source: KPMG Analysis, ABS Births, Australia

Note: 2024 estimate is preliminary and subject to revision

For further information

Hayden Jewell
Media Relations Senior Consultant
0423 868 454
hjewell@kpmg.com.au