For the first time in years, more German CEOs are expecting their companies to grow

Berlin, 20 October 2026
 

The economic outlook for Germany has recently brightened, and cautious optimism is returning to German boardrooms as well: 86 percent of German CEOs expect their companies to grow over the next three years. That’s 14 percentage points more than last year and the first increase in several years (2025: 72 percent; 2024: 77 percent; 2023: 80 percent). Over the same period, 68 percent anticipate growth of 2.5 percent or more. This is shown by the KPMG CEO Outlook 2026, for which 1,400 CEOs worldwide were surveyed, including 125 from Germany.

CEOs also view the outlook for their own industry and Germany as a business location more positively than last year: for their own industry, the figure rose from 71 to 78 percent, and for Germany as a business location, from 75 to 78 percent. The outlook for the global economy, however, remains gloomy: Just under two-thirds (62 percent) expect growth, down from 64 percent last year. Globally, the figure is slightly higher at 65 percent. German CEOs thus assess the global environment with slightly more caution than their international counterparts. Their confidence is focused primarily on their own companies and their own industries.

Artificial intelligence remains one of the most important investment targets for German companies. Despite economic uncertainty, 77 percent view AI as a top investment priority (2025: 68 percent). 94 percent expect to see a return on their AI investments within the next three years at the latest, or have already achieved one.

79 percent of German CEOs say they already have a clear idea of how AI could transform existing business models and strategies. This points to a growing level of maturity in dealing with the technology. 95 percent believe their company is capable of keeping pace with the speed of AI development. At the same time, building the necessary AI skills remains a key task. Eighty-two percent plan to hire new employees with AI and technology skills, 74 percent are expanding training and retraining programs, and 76 percent are redesigning role profiles and career paths. At the same time, 43 percent anticipate AI-related staff reductions.

This increased confidence is also reflected in companies’ acquisition plans. Ninety percent of German CEOs are considering acquisitions over the next three years. Most CEOs (60 percent) expect these transactions to have a moderate impact on their own companies. Just under one-third (30 percent) anticipate strategically significant acquisitions (2025: 58 percent).

“Growth today stems from the interplay of various strategic levers. In addition to organic growth, targeted acquisitions are gaining importance as a means of tapping into new capabilities and technologies. Acquisitions thus remain an important driver of further development for many companies,” says Mattias Schmelzer, CEO of KPMG in Germany.

Despite the rise in confidence, the business environment remains challenging. German CEOs cite external factors as the greatest risks to future growth, particularly regulatory requirements (30 percent), geopolitical instability (29 percent), a weak global economy (27 percent), supply chain resilience (27 percent), and cyber and data security risks (25 percent). 81 percent of German CEOs expect regulatory requirements to influence their company’s economic performance over the next three years. Close behind are the costs of technological infrastructure (80 percent), cybercrime (79 percent), and rising costs and inflation (78 percent).

For the KPMG CEO Outlook 2026, 1,400 CEOs worldwide were surveyed between August 11 and September 21, 2026, including 125 CEOs from Germany. The study examines executives’ views on growth, investment, artificial intelligence, workforce planning, acquisitions, and key economic and geopolitical challenges.

The survey included CEOs of companies with annual revenue exceeding $500 million. About one-third of the companies generate annual revenue of more than $10 billion. The study includes executives from 12 key markets and 12 key industries. The CEO Outlook 2026 is the twelfth edition of the global study series.