Q3’26 Pulse of Private Equity

ASPAC on track for five-year high of PE investment, but market highly selective

The ASPAC region saw $137.8 billion in PE investment across 1,109 deals during the first three quarters of 2026, putting it within reach of a five-year investment high, while its deal volume remained steady, on pace to match its 2025 total. ASPAC’s rolling twelve-month figures showed similar trends, with PE investment hitting a six-quarter high of $181.4 billion at the end of Q3’26 and deal volume holding relatively even quarter-over quarter.

While the market is improving, PE investors remain highly selective and focused on managing risk exposure amid high energy costs, interest rate increases, continued tensions in the Middle East, and ongoing concerns over energy availability.

Exit value in ASPAC region nearly double 2025 total at end of Q3’26, despite soft exit volume

Exit value in the ASPAC region was $203.4 billion at the end of Q3’26, nearly double its 2025 annual total of $110 billion despite only seeing 226 exits compared to the 401 seen during 2025. The spike in exit value was particularly clear in the rolling twelve-month total, which surged from $129.2 billion in Q2’26 to $234.5 billion in Q3’26. Rolling twelve-month exit volume showed a relatively soft decline, falling from 344 to 328 quarter over quarter.

A deeper dive into the exit data shows that while both acquisition and buyout exit values were already higher than their 2025 totals at the end of Q3’26 — at $38 billion and $32.3 billion, respectively — the surge came from the exit value associated with public listings, which reached $132.9 billion at the end of Q3’26, compared to just $60.4 billion during all of 2025.

Fundraising in ASPAC region remains very subdued

Within the ASPAC region, fundraising continued to be very weak, with just $23.8 billion in capital raised across 42 funds at the end of Q3’26. At the current rate, 2026 could be the slowest year for both fundraising and fund value seen in over a decade, although the rolling twelve-month totals suggest that the tide might be starting to turn. While rolling twelve-month deal value fell slightly from $42.3 billion in Q2’26 to $40.8 billion in Q3’26, it remained well ahead of the total seen in Q1’26 ($31.8 billion). Twelve-month rolling deal volume also rose very slightly — from 60 funds in both Q1’26 and Q2’26 to 65 funds in Q3’26. Exits remain the key challenge to a major uptick in fundraising activity, however, as investors look for reliable returns.

Trends to watch for in Q4’26

Looking ahead to Q4’26 and into 2027, exits are likely to receive increasing focus within the PE market in the ASPAC region, particularly given how AI infrastructure is quickly evolving into its own asset class and giving investors an alternative for their investments. While the backlog of exits has been a major theme for a number of quarters, it is set to intensify given the growing competition for capital from AI infrastructure. On the investment front, PE investors will likely remain selective given ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties and continued concerns about energy availability.

If you’re a large institution, you know liquid markets have their problems and real estate has it problems. Private equity has long been a good default. But now there’s this shiny new asset class in AI infrastructure — and its changing he game. We’re now at an inflection point where PE either needs to really address its exit backlog or risk loosing its lustre as investors turn to AI infrastructure.

Andrew Thompson

Asia Pacific Private Capital Leader and Asset Management

KPMG in Singapore