KPMG Autumn Budget Main Film 2026.09.08

00:00:09:15 - 00:00:25:08

Tim Sarson

So we've got a new government, new prime minister and a new chancellor of the exchequer. And he has announced that we're going to have our first autumn budget of the new administration on the 28th of October this year. So if you had any half term plans, please cancel them, because this is where it's all at.

00:00:25:09 - 00:00:44:19

Tim Sarson

I don't think we're likely to see tax rises as being the big headline coming out of this year's event. That's, I think, partly because this new government wants it to be a bit more feel good. They want the vibes to be different. We've had two budgets in the last two years that were quite sort of downbeat and about difficult choices.

00:00:44:19 - 00:01:13:20

Yael Selfin

So a lot has changed since the spring statement. The crisis in Iran has caused energy prices and inflation to rise, and interest rates are higher than what the OBR had expected. But at the same time, growth has been relatively resilient. And therefore, it is a little bit unclear what the fiscal room that the chancellor will have in autumn is actually going to be.

00:01:13:20 - 00:01:27:08

Tim Sarson

There might be some areas that the government does need to raise some revenue for. And so where's that likely to come from? I don't think we're going to see anything massively radical. I'm really not expecting huge tax rises across the board.

00:01:27:09 - 00:01:49:05

Tim Sarson

However, I would say I'd be a bit concerned if I were working in an industry that had been particularly profitable recently. They might be looking for a little bit more from me, and if I'd been getting my hopes up on, for example, that the freeze of income tax thresholds being lifted for the first time in years, I don't think this is the year that that's going to happen that's already been rolled back on.

00:01:49:10 - 00:02:10:04

Yael Selfin

It's really difficult to tell so far where the chancellor is going to be in terms of the fiscal room and how much money he may need to raise. When you look at the different parts of the budget and the target, there's the day to day spending where things like

00:02:10:04 - 00:02:39:24

Yael Selfin

cost of living help are likely to be affected, and that is likely to come from taxes or reduction in other spending. And then there's the investment where he's likely to focus more on defence, potentially in housing. That is probably going to be financed more by borrowing. So all that is still unclear for us, and hopefully we will be able to share more information with you as we approach the budget.