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      We know that businesses value certainty – and this is reinforced in KPMG’s latest Pulse survey of private enterprises.

      When asked about the most important factors for their long-term planning for growth and investment, the stability and predictability of the UK tax and regulatory environment was named by nearly half of leaders (45%) as a top factor, second only to the state of the UK economy itself (56%).

      Meanwhile, tax and fiscal policy uncertainty loomed large as a short-term risk factor. It was the third most widely cited risk (by 25% of respondents), behind inflation and ongoing cost pressures (47%) and global disruption impacting UK supply chains (33%).

      It is easy to think of mid-market businesses as less affected by big external trends than their FTSE counterparts as they trade more locally and domestically – but this really is a misconception. All parts of the business value chain are impacted by public policy and geopolitical factors, especially in an increasingly interconnected world.

      Richard Kelly
      Richard Kelly

      Senior Manager – External Affairs

      KPMG in the UK



      The Budget

      When we look at leaders’ own priorities for the Autumn Budget, we see further evidence of this. Measures to support technology adoption and digital capability were most widely cited (41%). Close behind was the citation of growth-focused investment and the Government’s Industrial Strategy (39%). This is quite a high percentage for an initiative that focuses principally on eight growth driving sectors, possibly indicating that mid-market businesses recognise its potential for unlocking wider growth and activating demand beyond individual industry siloes.

      Other factors high on the Budget wishlist were measures that support business profitability and competitiveness (34%) followed by skills, workforce and productivity (32%). The former reflects a view from private enterprise that levels of tax should be fair and that businesses should not be hampered by excessive red tape; the latter demonstrates that leaders realise they can’t rely on technology alone: people drive productivity and delivery, and therefore it is critical to create an environment where they can thrive through upskilling and training.

      Exports, trade and international competitiveness was next on the list of priorities, although somewhat further back at 20%. However, this featured more highly when asked about longer-term factors, with 36% flagging UK competitiveness in global markets as a key issue. In recent months, the UK has made progress on establishing international trade agreements and talks to reset trading relations with the EU are set to continue. Ensuring leaders know how these deals and trading arrangements can support them, and signposting how they can access them, is now key to boosting the UK’s exporting profile.

      Employment rights

      Another key item on the regulatory front is the Employment Rights Act which entered into law in December last year. Important aspects of the Act are subject to consultation as part of a phased implementation approach. How this plays out will have a material impact on businesses of all shapes and sizes, with changes in areas including unfair dismissal, sick pay, bereavement leave and zero or low hours contracts. The new administration’s handling of this will be an important feature of its relationship with business.



      The broader political landscape

      With a new Government in place, business will want a clear line of sight across the policy horizon, especially in those areas we saw prioritised in the Barometer results: certainty in the tax environment, tech and skills, as well as broader policy stability. Policymakers will need to ensure effective communications and seek to avoid wide-ranging speculation to maintain confidence in the private sector as this autumn’s Budget approaches.

      In the wider political environment, results from the local elections in May already showed the extent to which the British party system is changing. There is a challenge for business here, because political change has increasingly played out over much shorter timescales than corporate investment horizons over recent years; planning and preparation that anticipates a degree of uncertainty is key in this regard. 

      As always, there is a lot on the agenda. Business confidence has dipped in the last six months as firms strive to achieve returns in a low-growth environment, exacerbated by rising costs rippling from the conflict in Iran. There is however an opportunity for the new government to shore up confidence and instil a renewed sense of purpose and ambition that enables good businesses to thrive.



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