Modelling and Regulatory Finance

What we do
Our insights
Our people

Infrastructure projects are complex, often subject to significant time, cost and delivery risk. Uncertainty is common. Robust, data driven analysis to inform decision making is critical – whether that is to inform investment, negotiation, transformation, or simply understanding baseline trajectoryand risk. The strategic application of sophisticated financial modelling, underscored by best practice principles, supports decision making.

Our core competency lies in leveraging advanced modelling techniques, combined with FAST modelling principles, to assist clients in navigating these challenges. Whether it's tackling intricate debt structures, addressing procurement complexities, understanding system wide capacity, or ensuring long-term financial stability, we are well-equipped to handle it all.

Our experienced team use tried and tested approaches to provide analysis to meet your decision support needs. Crucially, this is integrated hand in glove with a sector and infrastructure delivery experts – so the focus is on providing you the right analysis to answer the right questions, not on the spreadsheets or software that sit behind it.

While working on large complex deals with huge amounts of data, clients are typically seeking support around several key factors:

How to build a compelling evidence base and data set that stakeholders buy into
How to understand the likely sensitivities and establish realistic scenarios, downside risk and upside potential
How to flexibly change assumptions and update data quickly
How to communicate effectively with financiers, regulators and wider stakeholders

We work with our clients to help shape effective choices, empowering them to make informed decisions for complex infrastructure deals across different sectors.

We are committed to helping our most senior clients on their most challenging commercial questions supported by effective modelling, connecting them to our firm's capabilities to give greater certainty on the questions they need to ask and providing more compelling, robust and complete answers.

George Hay

Partner, Regulatory and Corporate Finance

KPMG in the UK

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Who we help

Central government
Local government
Infrastructure developers
Infrastructure investors

Financiers
Renewables industry
Power & utilities
Healthcare

What we do

Our specialised infrastructure modelling team helps clients realise value from their data from early feasibility decision making through to formal model reviews. We provide advance financial modelling techniques to provide predictive forecasts, solving the most complex, messy problems at an enterprise level and forming clear, valuable insights for strategic business decisions.

Our capability covers organisations’ end to end decision making cycle. Our modelling teams are highly capable of working hand in hand with board level executives, operational colleagues and other key stakeholders – we understand that the consulting around the numbers is as important as the modelling tools and techniques.

We offer the following specific propositions:

We model future demand for a range of services linked to expected changes in demographics and usage of assets over time that will inform strategic decisions about where to invest and what to invest in. This includes advising on physical capacity requirements as well as building integrated models to assess the requirements for the future workforce as well as the projected financial implications of these changes
We build Integrated demand and capacity, financial, workforce and interventions modelling to support systemwide transformation, major reconfiguration and capital programmes and transactions (mergers etc.)
These are often integrated as part of our business case work, economic and financial modelling for large investment such as major IT change, assessing the benefits, risks and impact to their financial forecast and sector expertise

Integrated commercial modelling in the context of infrastructure transactions – commercial structures and finance, PPP, commercial real estate transactions, including shadow bid modelling for procurements and deals within target sectors such as local and central government, Renewables, Power, Utilities, Transport, Mobility, and Healthcare etc

Specialist modelling in sectors where regulatory and legislative change impacts on organisations’ finances and returns on investment, including complex cost of capital modelling
Complex modelling of economic impacts resulting from new investment schemes, changes in policy, or organisational impacts
Capability built on combination of commercial/ financial and regulatory expertise, technical economic analysis, sector leadership and modelling skills

We combine a deep understanding of regulatory frameworks, financial economics and capital markets to advise companies in water, energy, airports and telecoms on financial aspects of regulatory business plans, including: