U.S. tariffs: What does this mean for India’s logistics sector?

U.S. tariffs have left supply chain experts scrambling for answers. Strategies are being rewritten in real-time to navigate a terrain that’s only getting tougher.

The ripple effects are everywhere—from manufacturers and shipping agents to dockworkers, retailers and consumers. Every part of a well-oiled supply chain is under strain. Considering this, estimates suggest that global containers volumes could drop by 1 per cent this year, signalling rough seas ahead for trade.¹

In 2024, global logistics costs hit USD12.38 trillion—up by USD330 billion over the previous year.² With fresh tariff shockwaves, these costs are expected to climb even higher—prompting logistics players to rethink operations and build resilience at every link of the chain.

While the logistics network is shifting, what are some emerging opportunities for India to tap into?

Let’s take a look

Rising shipping and transportation costs

Shipping rates are expected to spike up, forcing companies to absorb higher freight bills or pass them on to consumers, resulting in an intense cost pressure building up.

India opportunity

While freight rates are spiking, high demand on diverted trade routes like India–U.S. can give Indian logistics providers better control over prices and margins.

Changing sourcing strategies

To avoid tariffs, global companies are shifting manufacturing to new regions. This trend is reshaping freight routes and forcing local logistics networks to adapt fast.

India opportunity

India’s relatively better tariff position is making it a viable alternative. This can be an opportunity for India’s logistics players to build stronger regional and cross-border networks.

Freight forwarders and third-party logistics (3PL) players

3PL players are under pressure to help businesses navigate evolving custom rules, reroute shipments and cut through red tape.

India opportunity

Indian freight forwarders and 3PL players can step up as strategic partners, offering key solutions, such as compliance, cost optimisation and flexible routing alternatives.

Rising risk of fraud and compliance issue

Tariff evasion tactics like false classification of goods or illegal routing are becoming more common. Logistics providers need stronger checks to safeguard operations and reputation.

India opportunity

While risky tactics are in play, India needs to be careful considering the shuffling trade flows. By strengthening compliance systems and enhancing digitisation of trade processes, India can position itself as a transparent trade partner.

Logistics today is about moving smarter, faster and staying strategically aligned in a world shaped by dynamic policy changes. For India, it’s a chance to step up and play a bigger role in the next wave of global trade.

^[1] U.S. tariffs may cause 1 per cent decline in global container port volume, World Ports Org., 25 April 2025, accessed on 30 April 2025
^[2] Global logistics costs to grow by 12 per cent and hit USD14.4 trillion by 2029, 13 November 2024, accessed on 30 April 2025